Foreign Policy

As discussed in my previous post, Mr. Trump’s domestic policy largely turns its back on basic conservative principles and is riddled with gaping holes. Having said that, there are at least a few points that deserve praise, especially his willingness to cut personal and corporate tax rates, curb federal economic regulation and backing of school choice.

When looking at his foreign policy “plan”, however, I see no such bright spots. It’s simply a bizarre combination of straw man arguments, outdated information, horrendous inconsistencies, criminal naiveté and a fundamental misunderstanding of the world beyond our borders.

In one breath he tells our allies that if they don’t pick up a larger budgetary portion of the global security we provide, we will turn our backs on them. And in the next, he criticizes the Obama Administration for alienating our friends around the world.

He calls for us to “Advance America’s core national interests, promote regional stability and produce an easing of tensions in the world.” Yet, he states, “We will no longer surrender this country, or its people, to the false song of globalism.”

What false song of globalism is he referencing? This is 2016, not 1816. We live in a world where events on the other side of the planet have a direct impact on our day-to-day lives. Believing that building figurative, and in Mr. Trump’s case, literal walls around our country will somehow be the antidote to all of our nation’s ills is preposterous. We as a nation are far too interconnected with the rest of the world from an economic, cultural and security standpoint for Mr. Trump’s paranoid brand of American nationalism.

Receding from the global stage, leaving a power vacuum for bad actors to fill is exactly what has plagued the Obama Administration for the past eight years. And that is exactly what Mr. Trump is proposing we do.

We need a Pax Americana foreign policy, one where global peace and order is overseen by the U.S. and the West. Yes, it is expensive and, yes, it does cost resources, but it is the far preferred option to the international chaos we’re experiencing now. And for those of you that roll your eyes at this and label me an establishment globalist, please note that Pax Americana was our foreign policy from 1945-2008. Precisely the “America” those of you who support Mr. Trump supposedly want to return to.

Troubling Views and Statements

At various points during the campaign, Mr. Trump has…

• Expressed an admiration for Vladimir Putin
• Claimed Bashar al-Assad gets things done
• Stated he understand ISIS better than our generals
• Supported the use of torture
• Said he is willing to dissolve NATO over funding levels
• Freely tossed around the term “America First”, which was the name of a group of American Nazi sympathizers that believed the Roosevelt Administration was duped into joining the Allied forces by a cabal of Jewish organizations
• Flippantly discussed using nuclear weapons
• Bragged about getting his foreign policy beliefs from, “the shows”
• Proposed carpet bombing Iraq’s oil fields to cut off ISIS funding, even though that would  cripple the Iraqi economy
• Shown complete ignorance about the nation’s nuclear triad
• Lumped Sunni and Shiite Muslims together as if they are allies
• Gone back on his support of the Iraqi War of 2003

These are not the stances, statements or beliefs of a man qualified or fit to be commander in chief.

President of the United States of America is the most difficult job on Earth, and the most difficult part of the most difficult job is foreign policy. Alliances shift (the enemy of my enemy isn’t always my friend), intelligence is sometimes impossible to obtain and cultural nuances are tricky to master. Successfully wading through the confusing foreign policy waters takes tireless dedication, boundless effort and a sincere desire to listen and defer to experts.

Mr. Trump has exhibited none of these qualities.

Case in point-his criticism of the invasion of Mosul. Read this excellent account of the efforts in Mosul from last week’s Wall Street Journal and honestly ask yourself if you believe Mr. Trump has the patience and discretion to properly handle this situation.

These are the pitfalls of foreign policy. Each decision one makes has the potential to set off a seemingly endless labyrinth of unintended consequences. You have to perfect strategic decision making, while winning hearts and minds. This is why acting like a demagogue in terms of immigrants, especially when it comes to Muslims and Mexicans, is a dead end. If we want cooperation in the War on Terror and if we want to clean up our immigration issues at the U.S./Mexico border, we need partnership with foreign nations.

Sincere doubts abound about Mr. Trump’s lack of preparation and appreciation for the power of the presidency. I for one do not want to find out if he’s up to the challenge.

Domestic Policy

While I find Mr. Trump’s crudeness, habitual lying and insensitivity towards pretty much everyone to be incredibly disconcerting, the real reason I became and remain #NeverTrump is due to his lack of conservative policies or ideology.

While it’s difficult to pin down where Mr. Trump stands on nearly any issue, I’m going to examine some of his domestic policies and stances.

Now to be fair, Mr. Trump is offering some policies I, like most real conservatives, can get behind. As a supply sider, I’m happy to see his desire to reduce personal income and corporate tax rates across the board. In that vein, I also applaud his willingness to cut back economic regulations that are strangling our economy, especially small businesses.

His support of unlocking our natural resources to continue towards the goal of total energy independence and backing of school choice also get high marks.

That is where the praise ends.

Looking at the remainder of his domestic policy finds little that conservatives should take solace in.

The Economy

Perhaps the most bewildering aspect of Mr. Trump’s campaign is his stance on trade agreements. He has frequently promised to renegotiate North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or “rip it up”, while also vowing to not sign Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) because it’s too complex and not good enough of a deal for the U.S.

Not to sound too much like him here, but in this case, Mr. Trump sounds like a loser. So just because we don’t get an absolutely perfect deal for the country, Mr. Trump is going to take his ball and go home? That’s a loser’s mentality. So often in life, you cannot get everything you want, so you take a good, but not perfect deal in absence of no deal at all. Waiting around for a perfect deal means you’re going to be waiting around forever.

For NAFTA, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Since its inception in 1993, it has:

• Quadrupled trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico
• Lowered prices on many products, but especially oil and food
• Boosted overall economic growth
• Created nearly five million U.S. jobs
• Increased foreign investment in the U.S.
• Reduced government spending

I can’t sit here and claim that NAFTA is perfect. In fact, I’m sure there are some aspects of it that do help our economy, but looking at the totality of its success thus far, why would anyone want to do away with this agreement?

Yes, the U.S. has the world’s largest economy, so we do have leverage in negotiations. However, there are countless other nations that would gladly fill the economic void left by us if we abandoned trade agreements like NAFTA or TPP. And our trading partners, in absence of our presence, would just as gladly trade with them.

Let us not forget Mr. Trump’s desire to impose higher tariffs on goods coming in from China. Surely nothing bad could possibly come from that, right? Ask people that lived through the Great Depression, which was made far, far worse by the disastrous Smoot-Hawley Act how they feel about this.

Free market capitalism, fueled by global trade is the greatest humanitarian vehicle the world has ever known. It has saved 10s of millions of lives by rising people out of poverty, has crushed oppressive regimes across the globe and given most people on Earth a quality of life not even thought possible a century ago. Any presidential candidate (especially the Republican Party nominee) who so casually risks the future of free global trade with such a flippant attitude clearly illustrates that they do not understand the importance of free markets to the U.S. and the rest of the world, and thus, should not occupy the Oval Office.

Spending

Since President Obama took office nearly eight years ago, one of the biggest criticisms hurled at him from republicans and independent conservatives alike is his mismanagement of the federal debt (When he took office, it stood at $10.6 trillion. Today? An appalling $19.8 trillion). It was this mismanagement, along with the proposal and eventual passing of the Affordable Care Act (A.K.A Obamacare) that launched the Tea Party movement that allowed the Republican Party to retake the Senate and House of Representatives.

This criticism of out-of-control federal spending from republicans and conservatives is nothing new. In fact, one could argue that it forms the foundation of conservative ideology. That is why it is so troubling to see Mr. Trump not only refusing to stop the debt crisis that is careening out of control, but willing to exacerbate it.

According to American Action Forum, a right-leaning think tank, Mr. Trump’s tax and spending plans would add nearly $6.8 trillion to the U.S. debt over the next decade. This is in sharp contrast to Mrs. Clinton’s tax and spending plans that would add $1.5 trillion over the same time. This should come as little surprise to anyone, considering Mr. Trump’s business practices over his career, where he has regularly taken on large sums of debt. A recent Forbes article just calculated his personal debt to be at $1.1 billion.

Now I’m fully aware that presidents Reagan and W. Bush helped make the federal debt worse. But those situations were different in the sense that the bulk of their additional deficit spending related to military expenditures during the Cold War and the War on Terror.

Mr. Trump’s extremely high levels of spending have nothing to do with national defense; rather all they do is increase an already-pork laden federal bureaucracy, which is the antithesis to conservative ideology.

Healthcare

You will not find many people more critical of the Affordable Care Act than I. It has resulted in poorer care for people from coast to coast by simultaneously reducing the choice consumers have in selecting coverage plans, preventing them from keeping their doctor and exploding costs.

However, what Mr. Trump is proposing isn’t a feasible plan.

He offers seven parts to his “plan” (I put plan in quotes because we have no idea on how he will actually do any of this)-some good, some simply not feasible:

1. Completely repeal Obamacare
2. Modify existing law that inhibits the sale of health insurance across state lines
3. Allow individuals to fully deduct health insurance premium payments from their tax returns under the current tax system
4. Allow individuals to use Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)
5. Require price transparency from all healthcare providers
6. Block-grant Medicaid to the states
7. Remove barriers to entry into free markets for drug providers that offer safe, reliable and cheaper products

Let me briefly take one at a time.

1. I agree with this, but only if there’s a comprehensive plan to replace it. Whether we like it or not, people are enrolled in the federal and state healthcare exchanges. We cannot just throw them off of insurance without something in place for them. And thus far, Mr. Trump hasn’t convinced many that he’s capable of doing this.
2. This already happens. For example, United Healthcare sells plans in many, many states-so long as the plans comply with each state’s insurance regulations. This portion of the plan means Mr. Trump thinks insurance companies should be able to sell plans in one state under the regulatory regime of another (this will never happen) or the federal government should take over all health insurance regulation and create a single national market (no thank you).
3. This is fine, but doesn’t really do anything to impact the affordability of coverage.
4. This is a great idea, but it needs to be the centerpiece of the plan, as it would allow people to remove healthcare coverage from their employment-a critical step in reforming the nation’s healthcare issues. 
5. Almost impossible to implement.
6. Very good idea.
7. Not feasible considering the role the FDA has in drug approvals.

So, again, there is some promise here, but ultimately this isn’t a healthcare plan. It’s just a mashup of different stances without an organizing blueprint around it.

The Candidate

Whether we like it or not, how a presidential candidate conducts his or her campaign is often times just as, or even more, important as the policies said candidate develops or the stances they take.

By any conceivable measure, Mr. Trump has been a miserable candidate.

The most alarming aspect of his campaign and what prompted me to take my #NeverTrump position since late 2015 is his complete inability to remain consistent on a policy. Take a policy, any policy, and chances are Mr. Trump has been both to the left and right of Mrs. Clinton throughout the campaign cycle. A popular saying around here is, “Don’t like the weather in Wisconsin? Wait five minutes”. The same can be said about Mr. Trump’s policy stances.

Here’s a quick list of issues where Mr. Trump has dramatically altered his position during his quest for the Oval Office:

Accepting the outcome of the election

The voting process is a rigged system

Immigration

Banning Muslims

President Obama’s birthplace

Combating ISIS

Minimum Wage

Taxes

Support for the Iraq War

The national debt

Abortion

Work visas for workers

The Iran nuclear deal

Healthcare

This is a fairly comprehensive list, with several of these being major issues. And when you couple this with his fundamental misunderstanding of issues like the Syrian crisis, Mosul attack strategy or our nuclear weapon capabilities, it’s clear you have a candidate that is in way over his head.

Now I’m fully aware that during the campaign season, a candidate may have to massage their stances or tweak their policies as they transform from primary to general election candidate. I don’t necessarily have an issue with that, as with most candidates we have their voting record to give us an understanding of their true ideological beliefs.

With Mr. Trump, we don’t have that, which is why his frequent contradictions are so troublesome. We have no idea where he stands on anything. I don’t think anyone can honestly say they have a clue about how he will govern. President of the United States is the most difficult and important job in the world-we simply cannot put someone in this position who not only doesn’t have a firm grasp of the issues, but doesn’t even have a coherent set of beliefs.

This also explains why the release of Mr. Trump’s tax returns is such an important issue in this campaign. Since Mr. Trump’s sole qualification revolves around his business career, I contend that his tax returns, while an imperfect measure of his success, are at least a reasonable facsimile to a voting record.

The failure to develop a consistent set of policies screams of utter laziness and contempt for the gravity the office of president holds. It’s a slap in the face to the country as a whole, as its clear Mr. Trump doesn’t respect us enough to develop sound positions on essentially any issue. 

But, alas, this critical deficiency doesn’t seem to matter to Mr. Trump’s group of fervent disciples. These devoted followers subscribe to the notion that Washington is broken (whatever that means) and only an outsider can fix it. But not just any outsider; no, no-Mr. Trump is the only one that is up to the task.

For all the ridicule those of us on the Right cast on President Obama’s hysterical supporters, besides the opposing ideological bents, I see little difference between them and Mr. Trump’s fanatics. The same cult of personality persists in both groups.

And while Mr. Trump remains wildly popular with roughly 30% of the electorate, he has effectively turned off the other 70%. As I stated in my last piece, there are a good number of republicans that are only voting for him because of their blind hatred for Mrs. Clinton, and if the democrats ran a different candidate, so many republicans wouldn’t be betraying their supposed conservative values merely to beat her.

This unpopularity is poison for the Republican Party and may spell doom for down-ballot candidates running for the House of Representatives and the Senate (which now appears to be lost to the democrats).

A presidential nominee is supposed to lift their fellow party members, not hold them back. But that is all Mr. Trump has done with boorish behavior and his idiotic and despicable comments about immigrants, women, John McCain, a disabled reporter, women, fellow republicans, Muslims and many others. And if the Republican Party doesn’t get over its momentary lapse in judgment and completely disavow itself of this man once the election is over, Mr. Trump’s fallout is destined to hold the party back for the foreseeable future. 

How Did We Get Here?

Before I address the myriad reasons why I find Donald Trump utterly ill-equipped to be Commander-in-Chief, I think it’s important to analyze his political rise and understand the environment that incubated it and the motivating factors behind it.

Over the past 15 months or so, I’m not the first to remark, “we have never had a presidential candidate like Donald Trump”, nor will I be the last. But what’s more interesting to me than figuring out how he’s different (I think that’s fairly apparent), is how he’s come to occupy the role of presidential nominee for the Republican Party.

Is it because the situation was set up perfectly for Mr. Trump and he is merely the benefactor of a unique political landscape rather than a real agent of change?

Or…

Is it because he’s tapped into some underlying sentiment that’s been bubbling just below the surface of the American citizenry?

While there’s some truth in each of these statements, I ultimately feel the former is much closer to reality than the latter.

There were three critical factors that created this perfect storm for Mr. Trump to gain the Republican Party nomination.

1.    Quality > Quantity

Simply put, too many republicans ran for president in 2016. There were 17 of them for God’s sake, and save for maybe two or three of them, they were all substandard candidates. The Republican National Committee, led by Wisconsin’s very own Reince Priebus, completely botched the primary process.

While most of the candidates were equally poor in quality, each had their own little niche-Rubio for foreign policy voters, Cruz for budget and spending voters, Kasich for moderate voters and so on. This deeply fractured the republican base, opening the door for an outsider, someone that was totally different. And thanks to the RNC not taking Mr. Trump seriously, they failed to usher hopeless candidates out of the race in a timely manner, thereby deepening the fracture and preventing republican voters the ability to rally behind a more qualified candidate.

Typically, the debates would help whittle down the number of nominees, but since the RNC decided it was a good idea to have 10, (10!) people on stage for the first six debates, they ended up being a chaotic circus of nonsense. And with so much bickering and so little policy discussion, the loudest, most bombastic voice rose above the din, positioning its owner, Mr. Trump, to lead out of the gates and never look back. 

2.    The Perfect Opponent

I don’t think there’s a member of the American Left that engenders as much visceral hatred than Hillary Clinton. People flat out despise her and are afraid that if she occupies the Oval Office, our country is doomed.

This is a critical point to make, as I believe many of Mr. Trump’s supporters have become so blinded by their rage and fear of Mrs. Clinton, that they will support, literally, anyone to stop her.  And since Mr. Trump had an early lead amongst his group of mediocre republican cohorts, many got on board with him because they felt he was the only one who could possibly defeat Mrs. Clinton in a general election.   

I feel that if a John Kerry-type or Joe Biden-type of candidate was the democratic nominee for president, I seriously doubt so many who claim to stand for conservative ideals and high morals would turn their backs on said beliefs simply to stop the democrats.

3.    A Complicit Media

The man clearly knows how to promote himself.  Combining his larger-than-life personality, strong name recognition from “The Apprentice” and penchant for saying outlandish things, Mr. Trump makes people take notice of him. In fact, there are few better self-promoters on the planet than him.

However, during the primary season, the media was more than happy to give Mr. Trump unprecedented access, seemingly, anytime he wanted. From treating his campaign stops like rock concerts to going to him whenever they needed an interesting quote, the media force fed Mr. Trump to us in a remarkable manner.

This New York Times article from March shows that Mr. Trump accrued just under $2 billion in free publicity at that point during the primaries. That was six times more than Ted Cruz and nine times more than Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio at that time.

You just don’t see this type of discrepancy in a typical election cycle; where one candidate, literally, dominates the news cycle on a seemingly nightly basis for months at a time.

So while some of Mr. Trump’s messaging resonated with large groups of voters (particularly his comments regarding immigration, political correctness and a disillusionment with Washington), I feel his ascension to the top of the Republican Party was largely the product of good fortune.

Why I remain #NeverTrump

Much to the relief and much to the chagrin of many of you, I have been a proud and consistent member of the #NeverTrump camp since the inception of his campaign in mid-2015. Since that time, I’ve had conversations with most, if not all, of you, in some form or another, regarding my feelings of Mr. Trump, his policies and what his presence in American politics and the Republican Party means for the current and future political landscape of our country.

Since I believe Mr. Trump to be a dangerous figure, one that will ultimately set the country and conservative movement back for years and years to come, I will be constructing an extensive polemic against the man and his brand of populism  over the next few weeks leading up to election day on November 8.

Feel free to read as many or as few of the subsequent posts in the coming weeks.