The Iranian Problem

We are not at the point of no return…but it’s getting perilously close.

In a routine update released on Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran has made 1,390 pounds of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride. This amount of uranium is enough to make one nuclear bomb.

Let me repeat that, Iran now has enough uranium to produce a nuclear bomb.

This is a frightening realization that the Iranian nuclear threat will be upon us far sooner than we feared.

This does not mean that they are ready to assemble a bomb, as two major steps that would precede such an event have yet to take place.

The first would be the eviction of IAEA inspectors. The processes of preparing uranium for a nuclear reactor that produces energy versus weaponry are vastly different and would be noticed by these inspectors rather quickly. The only fear with this, however, is that the Iranians have constructed secret nuclear facilities that are fully functional, something that is possible.

If they do not have these secret facilities, at least the expulsion of inspectors would alert the world to the nefarious activity in Iran. If world leaders possess enough will and fortitude to stand up to the Chinese and Russians (two staunch allies of Tehran) something could be done to stop the development of nuclear weapons. Forgive me if I’m a tad skeptical of that ever happening.

The second, and more difficult, step is the purification of the uranium to weapons-grade fuel. Once this fuel is enriched, it would have to be turned into a warhead design. This is step that Western intelligence agencies “doubt” that Iran has achieved.

They doubt that? That’s all we get, a doubt? We’re hanging our hopes of Iran not having the capabilities to produce a nuclear weapon in the near future on a doubt by intelligence agencies? Forgive me once again if I don’t exactly sleep soundly tonight.

So, what do we do about this?

Unfortunately, there aren’t many options.

I guess we can take the Iranians at their word and believe them when they say that the country with the third largest crude oil reserves in the world needs to develop nuclear technology for the sake of energy production.

I suppose we can also choose to believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny as well.

One obvious, dynamic move would be President Bush ordering an aerial attack on all Iranian nuclear facilities. This attack would echo the action taken by Israel in September of 2007 as they attack a suspected nuclear facility in Syria. This attack halted Syria’s nuclear activities and failed to incite a war or even intensify attacks on the Israeli people.

This type of response seems fairly unlikely as President Bush is consumed by the current economic situation and seems unwilling to make any political waves in his last 60 days in office.

I do know one person that may be hoping that he does carry out such an attack. That person is Barrack Obama.

If nothing is done in the next two months to stop the Iranian nuclear program, Obama may be saddled with a problem that dwarfs the current economic problems facing the country.

If I’m Obama, this is what I do:

I approach President Bush in secret and ask him to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities to effectively shut down it’s program.

I suspect Bush would go for it for numerous reasons:

• He knows that they’re developing nuclear weapons and that puts us at risk and I firmly believe that this man (Bush) wants what’s best for America.
• He knows that if Iran does develop a nuclear weapon(s), he will be blamed for allowing it to happen, rightly or wrongly.
• If Iran does develop said nuclear weapons, it will shift the balance of power in the Middle East significantly to Iran and seriously jeopardize all of the progress that has been made in Iraq and, as we all know, a successful Iraq is Bush’s last hope for a solid legacy.
• His loyal base of supporters will support this action and think even better of him.
• This will serve as payback for the Iranian’s support of the insurgency in Iraq.

I would preface this request by telling President Bush that, in public, I will denounce this action as more of the same unilateral actions that led this country to the mistakes made in Iraq.

Now, you may wonder why I would suggest that Obama take this approach and not just attack Iran on his own. Well, it would certainly not sit well with his base of supporters and, after all, he has another election to win.

This approach would allow action to be taken on Iran without Obama having to suffer the consequences from his base. Additionally, this would actually help President Bush’s political standing as much of his base have become less and less enamored with his administration after the past four years.

I don’t think the worldwide political fallout would be that serious either. With the price of oil extremely low and the current economic downturn ensuring it will probably stay that way for some time, there would be little effect economically.

Iran’s staunchest allies (Russia and China) would have a relatively weak response to the attack as well. Both are dealing with serious, domestic economic issues that require political action and resources. Furthermore, Russia lacks the credibility to criticize this action after their invasion of Georgia in August.

Plus, how many countries, no matter what their “official” response would be, would not be ecstatic that the threat of a nuclear Iran is erased? I doubt there would be even one that wouldn’t welcome this development.

So let’s see here…

We eliminate an extraordinarily dangerous situation from developing in the most tumultuous region of the globe? Check.

It helps both the current and future president politically? Check.

There will be little, if any, international outcry? Check.

I think I may be on to something here people.

I know some may scoff at this approach, claiming it to be a simplistic view of a complicated situation and that’s fine. To them I say; what else should we do?

I will patiently wait for a response.

That’s all for now folks. Until next time, take care and be well.

-John