The Battle for Pakistan.

As you all probably know, Pakistan is a mess right now and honestly, that’s putting it rather mildly.

After capitulating to the Taliban a couple of months back, Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari and the Pakistani military are finally fighting back.

This battle represents more than just a battle to control the Swat Valley of Pakistan; it represents the battle for the country itself.

This problem started back in February when Zardari acquiesced to the Taliban’s desire to control Danegeld, a city located within Swat. The Taliban assured all parties involved that this agreement would stop further violence.

And what do you know; the Taliban reneged on the deal. Boy, I don’t know who could have seen that coming…

Oh yeah that’s right, anyone with two eyes, that’s who!!!

So now, thanks to this foolish and shameful act, Pakistan is embroiled in a desperate fight to take back control of the Swat. This fight, incidentally, is taking place a mere 60 miles from Islamabad and, more importantly, Pakistan’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, some 100 nuclear bombs and warheads. Additionally, this fighting has led to the displacement of nearly a million Pakistanis and the slaughter of many innocent lives.

While it looks like the Pakistani army will win this battle (early, but admittedly unreliable, death counts puts the loss of life at 751 for the Taliban and 29 for the Pakistani army), the war may still rage.

Unfortunately for the rest of the world, just like in Afghanistan, there are parts of Pakistan where the Taliban is very popular. This is due in large part to the anti-American attitude that is widespread throughout much of the Mid East and Asia and to the power vacuum that the Taliban filled in the inhospitable parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan that Islamabad and Kabul cannot control.

So what needs to be done?

Well, the answer to that question is uncertain, as this is such a difficult situation for all of those involved.

From President Zardari’s point of view, while he does not want to completely give in to the rouge thugs that are the Taliban, he does not want to appear to be a puppet of Washington and risk alienating him from the roughly 50% of the Pakistani population that does not care for the U.S. Conversely, he knows that he needs the U.S.’s help to defeat the Taliban.

From the U.S.’s perspective, Pakistan has to be controlled; otherwise, all of the progress in Afghanistan will continue to be whittled away. On the other hand, they are forced to deal with this clown Zardari and his complete ineptitude when dealing with the Taliban. They cannot depose him as that would send the country into further chaos. Plus, whoever would be placed into power would be viewed as a puppet of Washington and that would further foster ill will towards us in the country.

As you can see, this is a real dicey situation, but this is what I would do…

Get tough with Islamabad and Zardari. Show them that it is in their best interests to not only drive the Taliban back, but also to soundly defeat them once and for all. Convince Zardari of the reality that he cannot possibly hope to coexist with the Taliban as eventually they will either overthrow him and/or kill him.

We also have to convince Pakistan that their main threat does not come from India, but rather it comes from the Taliban. Right now, Pakistan is so paranoid that India will attack them that they have the bulk of their weaponry and all of their best soldiers on the border they share with India. We need to convince them to invest these troops and weapons in the West where the fighting with the Taliban is taking place.

I know that this is easier said than done, but we can help.

Our military can help train Pakistani soldiers in the art of fighting a counterinsurgency war, lessons that our soldiers learned fighting in the streets of Iraq.

We can also continue the drone attacks that have killed dozens of Taliban fighters.

That’s what we can do from a military perspective, but there are economic and political actions we can take to help Pakistan as well.

First, we can begin constructing trade agreements with Pakistan. This will help their poor economy and begin to improve the quality of life of all Pakistanis.

Secondly, we can continue giving them aid. Right now, we have an agreement to give Pakistan $1.5 billion per year for the next five years. Continue that policy, but place conditions on that aid, such as real progress in defeating the Taliban.

Thirdly, we can use our friendly political and economic relationship with India to lower the tensions between them and Pakistan.

This American political, military and economic investment into Pakistan will show the Taliban fighters and the Pakistani citizens that we will not accept defeat. Hopefully, this will produce a ripple effect throughout the country that will shift support from the Taliban to us, as it did in Iraq.

I know this sounds like a lot of time, money, resources and personnel, but we have no other choice. What happens in Pakistan, literally, could determine our success in Afghanistan and the overall War on Terror. We have invested too many lives, too much money and time to fail now.

I have some confidence that President Obama will do the right thing in Pakistan. He has seemed to grasp the monumental problem there better than President Bush ever did and I hope that he follows through with some of the ideas that I outlined above.

If he does not, if he fails to properly follow through in Pakistan, I am afraid that we very well may lose the War on Terror.

That’s all for now folks. Take care and be well.

-John