Iran Decides.

Tomorrow marks Iran’s latest presidential election, at a time when the country is at its unquestioned zenith in terms of power and controversy. With a nuclear program that most people (including myself) believe to be used for the development of nuclear weapons, an exceedingly intimate friendship with North Korea-another rogue nuclear power and increased tensions with its archrival, Israel, Iran certainly has a lot on its plate.

Like the United States’ presidential election, Iranian elections take place every four years, with this campaign offering Iran’s citizens four candidates. The ballots will feature Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohsen Rezai, Mehdi Karroubi and, of course, the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Of the four, it appears that Mousavi and Ahmadinejad are the only two with a chance of victory. Rezai and Ahmadinejad are the nation’s conservative candidates and while Rezai’s clout among conservative Iranian circles is strong, it probably will not provide enough momentum to overcome Ahmadinejad’s closeness to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

In the reformer side, Karroubi and Mousavi are the choices. Mousavi seems to be the pick here as his rock-star-like appeal to the younger generation of Iranians is more valuable than Karroubi’s religious affiliations (he’s the only cleric running), as the Iranian culture places less and less emphasis on a clerical president with each passing election.

Between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, I expect to see the incumbent president retain his position as president of Iran. This is due in large part to the aforementioned closeness to Khamenei and Iran’s incredibly suspect voting rules, rules that provide an overwhelming edge to the sitting president.

No matter who wins, there is little hope that conditions in Iran will improve. None of the four candidates endorse ceasing Iran’s nuclear program or improving its relations with Israel. This fact ensures that whoever wins the election, President Obama will have his hands full for the foreseeable future.

Tune in tomorrow to see if I was right about Ahmadinejad.

That’s all for now folks. Until next time, take care and be well.

-John