Tuesday, June 16, 2009

So…now what?

As Iran continues to go through the motions of trying to pull the wool over the collective eyes of the world by “investigating” their fraudulent vote, it has become abundantly clear that no matter what the results of this “inquiry” are, President Ahmadinejad is going nowhere.


And if anyone still believes that this “election” was on the up and up, let’s consider the following information:


1. The Ministry of Interior under Sadeq Mahsouli, a general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and a senior aide to Mr. Ahmadinejad managed the entire “election” process. That is the equivalent of Rahm Emanuel managing the entire U.S. election.


2. President Ahmadinejad won in all 30 Iranian provinces, won all social and age categories and won in all three hometowns of his three rivals. This has, literally, never happened in any previous Iranian “election”.


3. The state-owned Fars News Agency declared Mr. Ahmadinejad won the “election” with two-thirds of the vote, even before the Interior Ministry finished counting all of the ballots.


Hmm…


But on to the $64,000 question, what does this result mean for The Middle East, the U.S. and the rest of the world?


Well, no one really knows for sure, but I cannot believe that anything good will result from this corrupt “election”…for anyone.


Obviously, the Middle East will be the region most affected by a “validated” Ahmadinejad administration. Looking to cement Iran as the alpha dog of the Mid East, Ahmadinejad will only continue the “Ugly Iranian” bullying (countless threats to Israel, nuclear development that defies the wishes of the rest of the world, allying with North Korea, another rogue, despotic regime) that he’s been perpetrating for the past year. This could lead to an eventual showdown with Israel, as President Obama seems totally disinterested in dealing with the increasing eventuality of a nuclear Tehran. Such a showdown could potentially destabilize the powder keg that is the Middle East, with non-radical states like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait being forced to choose sides. It could also threaten the maturing, yet still-fragile democracy in Iraq.


In addition to a potential Iranian-Israeli war (a war that, form a military standpoint, would easily be won by Israel, but one that would only increase terrorist activity against them), we might witness a nuclear arms race in the region, as well. Other countries may believe their only chance of survival with a nuclear Iran would be to go nuclear themselves.


Not good.


The prospects are not good for the U.S. either.


With President Ahmadinejad vowing to never negotiate Iran’s nuclear program with any foreign power (“That file is shut forever,” he said to rousing cheers in a post “election” victory speech), the pressure for President Obama to actually take action rather than merely talking will increase with every passing day. If he fails to act decisively (which is what I suspect will happen), he will be correctly viewed as weak by the rest of the world and numerous other countries like Russia, North Korea and Columbia and rogue groups like Hamas, Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, FARC and the Taliban may begin to test his resolve.


Again, not a good development at a time when our strongest alliances (France, Great Britain, India and Israel) are strained. Hey, wasn’t Obama supposed improve our standing in the world?


With most of the world’s economies, especially those of the developing nations of Africa and Southeast Asia, still running on oil, a sharp spike in the price of the commodity could send the global recession into deeper and deeper depths. And that is precisely what will happen if Iran continues to destabilize the region with their aggressive activity.


The fate for the Iranian people appears to be rather bleak as well. President Ahmadinejad’s economic policies are the reason the Iranian economy is in shambles (a trend that started even when oil was trading above $100 a barrel). His plan to seize the assets of hundreds of mullahs and their business associates for redistribution among the poor will only further damage this floundering economy.


As I said, nothing good at all.


That’s all for now folks. Until next time, take care and be well.


-John

1 comment:

tyse said...

Hold it now. You have any proof of fraud in the irani election or are you just assuming again. As much as i wish that Iran would become the shinning example of a secular democracy that we wanted Iraq to be in the mid east i simply cannot declare the election a fraud without any proof.

Of course the election was a sham. Both the candidates were picked by the council and NOT by the people through an open primary. That being said.....

I am sort of glad that Ahmadinejad won. Because now the dialogue between the U.S. and Iran can commence. We know where Ahmadinajad stands. He has made several trips to the U.S. in hopes of starting a dialogue. Mir hosein mussavi (The father of the irani nuclear program) may have derailed that whole process. What we know of Mussavi's term in office tells me he is 10 times a fanatic that Ahmadinejad has shown himself to be. All the crying about the dead irani protesters is what i find baffling. Just last week we were ready to turn the whole place into glass. Millions of civilians included BUT today we cry for a dead handful ?

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