What if Israel Attacks?

In a shocking development last week, officials in the Israeli Defense Ministry said that, while they prefer to work with the United States in diffusing the Iranian nuclear issue, they were preparing plans that would allow them to act unilaterally to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities with air strikes.

While some doubt Israel’s ability to conduct an air strike that would eliminate the entire Iranian nuclear program, this admission was, nonetheless, monumental.

So what would happen if Israel were to attack Iran? Nobody really knows for sure, but I’m going to venture some educated guesses as to what would happen.

Boom! Bam! Pow! Wham! Thud! Smash! Splat! Zonk! Vronk! Clank!

No, that was not me imitating a fight scene from the old Batman series; it was I (poorly) replicating an Israeli air attack on Iran, an attack that eliminated the entire Iranian nuclear program.

I think it’s safe to say that Iran would be very upset if this happened. Not only are their hopes of gaining international prominence with the help of a nuclear bomb gone, but also, their hated rival that was the responsible party for the attack.

So, now what?

A large number of different scenarios could unfold, but I actually think most conventional assumptions may be wrong about the aftermath of such an attack.

Assumption #1: The Iranian response on Israel would be swift and harsh.

Or would it?

Iran is not in the advantageous position it held just this summer when crude oil traded over $144 a barrel. Their economy was in serious trouble then and is downright disastrous right now.

Do they have the resources to conduct such an attack? The answer is probably not.

Despite fewer troops, Israel’s military is stronger than Iran’s and it is unlikely that Iran could mount an attack that Israel would not be able to handle.

Assumption#2: All right fine, if Iran can’t defend itself, surely its allies will.

I really don’t think this will happen either.

First, Iran’s only allies of any consequence are China and Russia, so it’s not as if they have a real long list of options here.

Secondly, China and Russia have enough problems of their own to worry about rather than focusing on the situation in Iran. Especially Russia who, after invading Georgia this summer, is desperate to avoid any further EU sanctions stemming from the invasion and won’t say “boo” about this Israeli aggression.

Thirdly, with oil becoming less and less valuable every day, Iran becomes that much less attractive to these “allies”.

Finally, while they wouldn’t admit it publicly, I’m sure China and Russia would breathe a deep sign of relief if this were to happen. A nuclear Iran means a less stable world and a less stable world means more economic problems; a situation Russia and China are vehemently determined to avoid.

Assumption #3: The attack would surely destabilize an already erratic region.

Quite the contrary, Iran’s nuclear goals are the major source of instability in the region. In fact, this would only stabilize the region as so many “what if’s” like “what if Iran gets the bomb” or “what if they use it” won’t have to be explored.

A weakened Iran allows for a stronger Iraq. This would not only be good for the region, as Iraq would become a model for other nations (like Iran for example) to become democracies, but also good for the U.S. as Iraq, along with Israel, is our staunchest ally in the Mid East.

Assumption #4: The rest of the Mid East will take action against Israel.

Not if history is any indicator of future events.

In September of 2007, Israel unilaterally attacked the Syrian nuclear program and faced virtually no backlash as a result.

Assumption #5: The Iranians will rally around their leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Not bloody likely as Ahmadinejad is rather unpopular in Iran due to a crippling economic situation and decisions that resulted in inflation rates of over 30% and the squandering all of this summer’s record-breaking oil revenues.

With his promises of global prominence from nuclear power now shattered, look for him to be ousted from power.

To sum it up, I actually think that there would be little political fallout from this action and even less military fallout. The Middle East will be far safer, the world economy will be far more stable and lives will undoubtedly be saved if Israel were to take this action.

Let’s hope that they follow through.

That’s all for now folks. Until next time, take care and be well.

-John