One Surge Fits All?

As we have all been reading over the past few months, the situation in Afghanistan is slowly deteriorating. The Taliban is experiencing a resurgence, Al-Qaeda is still operating between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Karzai Government is becoming less effective, respected and influential.

Obviously, this is rather alarming and something has to be done…and fast.

But what needs to be done? It appears that everyone is under the assumption that all we need to do is execute a troop surge in Afghanistan. After all, it worked well in Iraq; so it should work in Afghanistan… right?

I am not so eager to grant that reasoning (the reasoning that seems to be the main argument for this action, by the way) as 100% sound.

Afghanistan and Iraq share very little similarities.

Simply from a geographic standpoint, Afghanistan is far larger than Iraq. Its extremely mountainous topography makes it much more difficult to patrol when compared to Iraq’s predominantly desert landscape. These mere geological differences make a troop surge far more difficult to accomplish and less likely to be effective.

The geographic issues are one problem; however, the countries’ other differences are even more daunting. The people, government, customs, culture, society, economy, infrastructure and history of Afghanistan are far different in innumerably different ways from those of Iraq and pose significantly more challenges than the geographic issues.

As one can see, one surge does not fit all.

Now, I am not suggesting that we pack up and head home.

That would be ludicrous.

What we need to do is not simply throw more troops at the Afghan problem; rather we need to develop a completely different strategy for Afghanistan. I am not talking about a strictly military strategy either.

We need to gain the trust of the Afghani people, so there needs to be cultural and economic portions of the plan, so the Afghans realize that we are the good guys and if they side with us, they will be safe.

It was this, a change in strategy enacted by General David Petraeus, that I believe was the main reason for the remarkable turnaround that Iraq is currently experiencing.

After all, the troop surge that happened in Iraq was, in the grand scheme of things, a relatively small influx of personal. In fact, we have had more troops in different times in Iraq than we did after the surge.

The troop surge, however, went hand-in-hand with a different strategy. The counter-terrorism approach (where we would run around, seeking out the bad guys, engage them, go home and repeat the next day) that we had in place from 2003 until the middle of 2007 ultimately failed.

What was successful and what did turn Iraq around was the strategy of connecting with the Iraqi people. Under General Petraeus, coalition troops went out and gained the trust of the Iraqis, showed them that they would be safe with our support and really learned what made these people tick.

It is this type of strategy, this outreach that will lead to an Afghanistan awakening.

Right now, people in Afghanistan are unwilling to help our troops or the Karzai government for fear of reprisal from the Taliban.

If we can change that, if we can go out to the population centers and convince them that they will be safe if they trust us, then the Taliban’s and Al-Qaeda’s support system will begin to be dismantled.

I deliberately say, “begin to be dismantled” in the previous statement for a major reason…Pakistan.

Right now, Pakistan is a major thorn in the side of anyone that wants to see the Taliban and Al-Qaeda eliminated. Due to Pakistan’s incredibly weak government in Islamabad and a complete lack of control of its northern and western borders, the Pakistani-Afghani border is a superhighway for terrorists flowing in and out of both countries.

Any time American or NATO forces turn up the heat on the Taliban or Al-Qaeda, they simply slip into Pakistan and return at a later date.

This needs to stop.

It is my opinion that the Bush Administration was too easy on the Pakistani government. After all, they have had over seven years to eliminate the terrorism problem in their country. In those seven years, they have received military support, billions and billions in economic and humanitarian aid and political support from us and in return, they have not upheld their side of the bargain.

We need to make it perfectly clear to the Zardari Government that we will have a terrorist-free Pakistan with them or without them. I think even they will understand that message.

We also need to continue the drone aircraft attacks, even if they go into Pakistan. They are an incredibly efficient way of eliminating the bad guys while not risking the life of a single American soldier.

To be clear, we cannot have a terror-free Afghanistan unless we have a terror-free Pakistan.

I know that I am painting a fairly bleak picture of Afghanistan and I will admit, I am slightly pessimistic about our chances of succeeding there, just ask the Soviets how difficult it is to tame Afghanistan.

I will say this however; I have tremendous faith in General Petraeus. I believe he is without a doubt the right man for this monumental job.

I am also hopeful that when the August Presidential elections come for the Afghani people, they elect a real leader, unlike the one they have now. With the rampant corruption that infests the Afghan Government, I am not going to hold my breath that a Nouri al-Maliki with step forward, but you never know.

Just remember it was only a mere 20 months ago that most politicians and commentators were calling Iraq a lost cause.

It’s funny what a little time and a new strategy can accomplish.

Let’s hope the previous statement can be applied to Afghanistan in the near future.

That’s all for now folks. Until next time, take care and be well.

-John